Focus:

Section 3.1 of the report deals more specifically with the strategy for making agriculture more productive and resilient.

Key messages of this section are as follows:

Modeling shows that climate change will significantly reduce agricultural productivity. Changes in the availability of water are the main factor; the effects of increased heat and soil erosion were also considered. Climate change is not expected to impact production of commonly irrigated crops, such as fruits, stimulants (coffee and tea), and sugarcane, as the availability of irrigation water is not affected even if rainfall declines or becomes less predictable. For all rainfed crops, the impact on yields varies with the climate scenario, but the prospects for some are clearly more negative than for others

With regards to the livestock sector, the modeling results show that impacts on the sector are expected to be relatively small before 2050. The two main factors considered in the analysis were the impact of heat stress, and projected changes in the availability of pasture and feed. Results show that the negative impacts on livestock yields would increase substantially after 2050, as rising temperatures surpass the maximum heat tolerance for both livestock and pasture grasslands.

Some of the key policy and institutional reforms needed to promote resilience adaptation measures include: (i) developing seed regulations, guided by the recently enacted Seed Bill to promote improved resilient crop varieties, and (ii) develop new livestock laws to promote resilient livestock breeds, feeds and veterinary services.

The National Agricultural Policy, which is under review, needs to guide the sector towards deepening adaptation, while also recognizing the mitigation benefits.